Methodology

What PSCI measures

The Pallet Solutions Cost Index (PSCI) tracks the input costs of producing a standard 48x40 GMA pallet. It is a cost-input index, not a transaction price index. PSPI (Pallet Solutions Pressure Index) is the separate price-paid measure, built from anonymized managed-program transaction data.

PSCI is weekly, federal-data-backed, methodology-published, and audit-reproducible. No other index in the pallet category publishes a methodology.

Current version: 1.3 Base period: January 2024 = 100 Release cadence: Weekly, Tuesdays at 10 AM ET, right after BLS and EIA federal data drops.

The formula

PSCI is a weighted geometric mean of five publicly-available federal series:

PSCI_t = (PPI_pallet ^ 0.40)
       × (PPI_lumber ^ 0.20)
       × (Diesel    ^ 0.20)
       × (Wages     ^ 0.15)
       × (OCC       ^ 0.05)

A geometric mean is used rather than an arithmetic mean because PSCI tracks multiplicative cost interactions (a 10% rise in lumber compounds with a 10% rise in diesel rather than averaging with it). Geometric means are standard practice in composite cost indices for this reason.

The federal data inputs

Component	Weight	Source
Wood Pallet PPI	40%	BLS Producer Price Index, series WPU0911
Softwood Lumber PPI	20%	BLS Producer Price Index, series PCU321113321113 (sawmills)
Diesel (US weekly retail)	20%	EIA On-Highway Diesel Fuel Price, series EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG
Warehouse Worker Earnings	15%	BLS CES, NAICS 4931 (warehousing and storage)
OCC (Old Corrugated Containers PPI)	5%	BLS PPI paperboard series

Every component value links directly to its publishing agency's source page. The data is open. The math is open. The composite is reproducible from public sources alone.

Weighting

Default weights reflect the typical cost composition of a standard 48x40 GMA pallet built in a U.S. sawmill. Weights are sourced from a 2024 internal cost audit across managed engagements and reviewed quarterly. Regional sub-indices (PADD-specific PSCI variants) are built once corridor transaction volume in Managed Programs anchors them empirically.

Publication discipline

Every PSCI value publishes with:

1. The federal series snapshots used (with timestamp).
2. The weights applied.
3. The resulting composite calculation.
4. The week-over-week and year-over-year deltas.
5. A hash of the methodology version used to compute it.

A procurement audit reviewer can reproduce any published PSCI value from the same federal data we used. We do not adjust, smooth, or proprietize the math.

Restatement protocol

Federal series occasionally restate prior values (BLS quarterly seasonal adjustments, EIA retroactive corrections). When an input series restates a value PSCI has already published, PSCI publishes the restated PSCI alongside the original, dated, with the restatement reason cited. We do not silently overwrite historical values.

Federal data outage handling

When a federal source is unavailable on its scheduled publication day (BLS or EIA outage, government shutdown, etc.), PSCI publishes the most recent available snapshot with an explicit "carried forward from [date]" note on that input. The composite is still computed and published; users see exactly which inputs are stale.

Backfill disclosure

PSCI was first published in 2024 with the base period set to January 2024 = 100. Historical values before that date are computed using the same formula applied to the federal series at the historical snapshot dates, marked as "back-fill" in the published CSV. They are not part of the official live series.

CSV release

Every weekly PSCI value is released into the public domain (CC0). The CSV includes the value, the snapshot date, each component's value, and the methodology version hash. Available on the Market Pulse page.

Empirical validation

Once corridor transaction volume in Managed Programs reaches threshold, PSCI weights are empirically validated against actual paid pallet prices. Where the federal composite diverges from observed prices, we publish the divergence. We do not adjust the index to match. The methodology is open about its own error band.

PSCI vs PSPI

	PSCI	PSPI
Measures	Cost inputs to produce	Prices actually paid
Source	Federal series (BLS, EIA)	Managed-program transaction data
Update cadence	Weekly	Weekly
Audit-reproducible	Yes, from federal data alone	Anonymized aggregate; methodology published

AI Forecast Layer governance

The 30-day forward projection applies Google's TimesFM 2.5 (Apache 2.0 licensed) to each federal series independently. Each projection publishes with a 95% confidence band and the back-test error metrics on the underlying series. Forecasts are explicitly probabilistic, not deterministic; we publish misses with the same prominence as hits. The forecast layer can be turned off in a published value without affecting the historical PSCI calculation.

Release calendar

PSCI publishes every Tuesday at 10 AM ET. The federal sources publish on the following schedule:

• BLS PPI series: typically second Friday of each month (monthly data, weekly carry-forward between releases).
• EIA On-Highway Diesel: weekly, Mondays at 4 PM ET.
• BLS CES Warehouse Earnings: monthly, first Friday of each month.

PSCI uses the most recent available value from each source at the Tuesday 10 AM cutoff.

Updates

The methodology page is versioned. Any change to weights, sources, or audit logic is dated and explained in the changelog. Current version: 1.3, published April 30, 2026.